|
The
Bursting of the Asian Housing Bubble |
| May
28th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Housing
prices in many developing Asian countries soared after
the Global Financial Crisis, but the recent trends suggest
that they may be tapering off and even declining.
|
|
| Food
Price Transmission in India: The case of wheat |
| Apr
30th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
general tendency among Indian policy makers is to blame
international price movements for the rise in prices
of essential food items in India, which is actually
not true.
|
|
| Private
Banks and Financial Inclusion |
| Apr
16th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
view that corporate sector's entry into banking will
be an instrument to advance financial inclusion is based
neither on historical evidence nor on market logic.
|
|
| The
Political Economy of Indian Food Exports |
| Apr
2nd 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
article discusses the political economy configurations
that permit rising grain exports from India, even as
domestic food prices spiral out of the reach of ordinary
people.
|
|
| Gems,
Jewels and Gold |
| Mar
19th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Accrual
of gold and jewellery by a section of Indians that led
to a surge in gold imports has left the nation with
unjustifiable negative fiscal and foreign exchange balance.
|
|
| Tax
Concessions to Companies |
| Mar
5th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Revenue
foregone due to direct tax concessions to the corporate
sector has become a huge element in the Budget, and
one that is increasingly coming under public scrutiny.
|
|
| Disquieting
Imbalance |
| Feb
19th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
A
spate of evidence suggests that there is much that is
troubling on India's balance of payments front. But
there seems to be no concerted action to address the
problem.
|
|
| The
Changing Face of Urban Poverty |
| Feb
5th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Urban
poverty is both underestimated and inadequately addressed
by public policy in India; but as evidence suggests,
the nature and extent of this require urgent attention.
|
|
| Hawking
the Deficit |
| Jan
8th 2013, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
the government proclaims the need to reduce fiscal deficit,
its actual performance in recent years has been well
below projections, especially due to lower receipts.
|
|
| India's
Growth Story: A comparative view |
| Dec
11th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Indian
growth episode was not based on the sorts of stimuli
and methods of financing that have characterised the
growth of some other more successful Asian economies.
|
|
| Changing
Patterns of Domestic Works |
| Nov
14th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Domestic
work is emerging as an important activity for women
workers in several developing countries as well as recently
in urban India.
|
|
| Burdening
Public Banks with Private Losses |
| Oct
30th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
large bank loans to private investors have been restructured
to keep them 'performing', the burden of such financing
has fallen disproportionately on public sector banks.
|
|
| India,
China and the World |
| Oct
19th 2012, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
Those
who defend neo-liberal policies in India by citing China's
export and growth successes as if India can simply replicate
China's experience, are completely wrong.
|
|
| On
Deregulation in the Petroleum Sector in India |
| Oct
17th 2012, Surajit
Das |
|
The
policy of oil price deregulation in the face of rising
international price of oil would have direct detrimental
effects on growth, inflation and 'macroeconomic stability'.
|
|
| The
Insensitive Sensex |
| Oct
15th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
While
growth slows down in India, the only index faring well
is the Sensex. The short term speculators armed with
central bank's cheap credit and easy money policies
have helped it remain high though volatile.
|
|
| Financial
Convergence in Asia |
| Sep
5th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
as there are dissimilar financial structures, the recent
Asian experience with financial convergence suggests
that financial proliferation largely facilitates new
lines of business in financial services and affects
the real economy more from the demand side by the debt-financed
household expenditure it promotes. Thus excessive exposure
to retail markets is becoming a source of fragility
in these countries just as it did in the developed countries.
|
|
| Capital
and Public Expenditure |
| Aug
24th 2012, Prabhat
Patnaik |
|
The
author explores the paradox of why capitalists are opposed
to public expenditures even in economies with high unemployment
and unutilised capacity despite the fact that such investments
would boost aggregate demand. The answer lies in preserving
the capitalists' control over the level of output and
employment and thereby maintaining their hegemony over
society.
|
|
| Ill
Winds from Europe |
| Aug
8th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
crisis intensifies in Europe and threatens to trigger
a second global downturn in five years. This time, Asian
countries, which weathered the last crisis well, seem
less resilient. In fact, the evidence points to many
routes to the spread of contagion to Asia. |
|
| Another
Looming Food Crisis |
| Jul
25th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
possibility of another global food crisis facing the
world brings with it questions about what exactly is
causing these crazy fluctuations in global food prices.
Arguably, it is not changes in the 'real' conditions
that are behind these price fluctuations. Rather, it
is the role played by rumour, and therefore by the media
in altering expectations that can explain, to a large
extent, the recent spike in food prices. |
|
| Banking
on Debt |
| Jul
10th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
latest figures on India's external account reveal that
the problem of declining foreign exchange reserves is
the result principally of the widening of the current
account deficit, which was far too large to be covered
by an increase in capital inflows. While the government
may do well to address the vulnerability caused by a
rising import bill, especially on account of gold imports,
it has been adding to external vulnerability by encouraging
further inflows of speculative debt capital. |
|
| Engineering
Teaching and Research in IITs and its Impact on India |
| Jul
5th 2012, Milind
Sohoni |
|
The
dominant paradigm of research and development (R&D),
as it is practised in India's premier engineering institutes,
has not only been abstract and lacking in diversity,
but has also been too 'international' to incentivise
work on our own development problems. Such an inverted
incentive structure in the socio-economically important
engineering job market has been macroeconomically observable
in the faster growth in service sector as compared to
manufacturing. |
|
| Consumption
Inequality in India |
| Jun
26th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
An
analysis of the mean per capita monthly consumption
expenditure data from the NSSO large surveys gives evidence
of stagnation of consumption of the lower proportions
of the population and significant increases in inequality
across deciles, especially in the most recent period.
|
|
| The
Emerging Left in the Emerging World |
| Jun
12th 2012, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
In
this article, the author reviews several features of
emerging left movements in Latin America, Africa and
developing Asia that suggest a move away from some traditional
ideas associated with socialist theory and practice
even as there are two important areas of continuity
with the leftist thinking of the past. |
|
| Of
Profits and Growth |
| May
29th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period between 2002-03 and 2008-09 saw India's economy
grow at an unprecedented rate, with manufacturing too
witnessing a revival. However, the rate of growth of
the manufacturing sector would be reduced due to the
effects of the recent developments of reduction and
even reversal of foreign capital inflows, the liquidity
crunch and the large scale corruption in India. |
|
| Growing
Differences in State Per Capita Incomes |
| May
15th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
period of economic liberalisation has been marked by
growing differences in per capita incomes across states,
although the trend has varied across decades. In this
article, the authors examine the evidence on per capita
Net Domestic Product at the state level since 1980,
and consider some possible explanations for the observed
trends. |
|
| Factor
Shares in the Indian Economy |
| Apr
17th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
functional distribution of national income is relatively
ignored by researchers interested in income distribution
in India. An analysis of CSO's data on factor shares
in the past three decades shows that the the period
of most rapid acceleration of growth was also the period
of the sharpest fall in the share of the unorganised
sector in GDP. Although this change is to be welcomed,
the concern is that it has not been accompanied by any
increase in the organised sector's share in total employment. |
|
| Post-Crisis
Reform: A lost opportunity? |
| Apr
3rd 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
In
its recently released annual report, the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas makes a case for breaking up banks considered
too big to fail. But the failure to do that is only
one possible way in which the opportunity provided by
the crisis to reform and regulate finance has been lost. |
|
| The
Age of “High” Oil |
| Mar
9th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
The
recent spike in the international prices of oil suggests
that the recession-induced dip in oil prices may be
behind us. Political uncertainty and financial speculation
have trapped the world in a regime of high and rising
oil prices. |
|
| Can
Asia Decouple? |
| Feb
22nd 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
As
the global economic situation worsens, there are renewed
concerns about the fate of developing countries. The
authors consider recent trends in global GDP growth,
investment and trade, and argue that the expectations
of Asia being able to blithely withstand the latest
round of economic crisis are not just over-optimistic
but probably wrong. |
|
| Behind
the Fear of Debt |
| Feb
9th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Fears
are being expressed in official policy circles that
the country's dependence on foreign debt as opposed
to foreign investment to finance the external deficit
is increasing, leading to specific policy responses.
Recently the government has announced a policy allowing
direct access of a new group of foreign investors into
India's equity markets. Although this measure is defended
on the grounds that it would help reduce dependence
on debt, its validity is indeed questionable. |
|
| Thirst
for Foreign Capital |
| Jan
27th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
|
Concerned
about the fall in FII investments and the financing
of the growing current account deficit, the government
has allowed a new group of foreign investors to invest
directly in India's equity markets. To the extent that
the measure is successful, it would mark a transition
towards allowing greater presence of speculative players
in the Indian markets. |
|
| India's
External Sector |
| Jan
11th 2012, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
Even
before global currents caused relatively rapid outflows
of mobile finance capital from India, the Indian economy
was vulnerable on the external front. The recent pattern
of growth that has been reliant on capital inflows to
generate domestic credit-driven bubbles, rather than
trade surpluses is not sustainable and puts the economy
at greater risk. |
|
| Prospects
for the World Economy in 2012 |
| Dec
27th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
2011
revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after
the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable,
as the recent problems of global capitalism, including
those associated with excessive debt build-up, were
reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown
across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends
in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the
world economy in 2012.
|
|
| The
Lurking Debt Problem |
| Dec
19th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Rising
interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging
large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort
to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures.
In particular, there has been significant rise in the
shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt
in total external debt. This tendency is increasing
external vulnerability. |
|
| Why
are Women's Health Outcomes in India so Poor?
|
| Nov
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Women's
health outcomes in India are generally much worse than
in comparator countries, despite two decades of very
rapid growth in India. Public spending on health as
a share of GDP has not increased, and per capita spending
on immunisation and primary health centres has actually
gone down. |
|
| Employment
Shifts after the Global Crisis |
| Oct
4th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
stagnation of employment in developed countries and
apparent recovery in developing countries after the
Great Recession of 2008-09 have renewed perceptions
of a global shift in employment to the developing world,
particularly in manufacturing activities. This article
uses the most recent available ILO data to examine the
extent to which such a shift is actually occurring. |
|
| The
Persistent Global Crisis |
| Sep
22nd 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
World
financial leaders gather at Washington for the annual
meetings of the World Bank and the IMF amid fears of
another global recession. But the perspective and will
needed to address the problem appear to be absent. |
|
| Higher
Education: Dealing with higher expectations
|
| Sep
7th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
There
has been a significant increase in enrolment in higher
education in developing countries (especially Asia)
in the past decade. However, this positive change also
brings forth certain challenges, the most obvious of
which is the challenge of generating enough employment
to meet expectations of growing numbers of new graduates.
|
|
| The
Global Recession and India |
| Aug
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
With
global growth slowing and financial markets experiencing
a downturn, the fallout for India is a matter of concern.
The channels through which these effects could be transmitted
are more in number than conventionally recognised. |
|
| Women's
Work in India: Has anything changed?
|
| Aug
9th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
One
of the striking features of the latest National Sample
Survey round results is the apparent decline in female
employment in 2009-10 compared to 2004-05. The other
depressing feature that emerges from the survey is that
economic growth has still not generated a process of
employment diversification for women. |
|
| Deciphering
Employment Trends |
| Jul
26th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
One
distinctive feature of the labour market in India is
the fact that casual work in the construction sector
has been the main source of employment during a period
when India transited to its much-celebrated high-growth
trajectory. |
|
| The
Latest Employment Trends from the NSSO
|
| Jul
14th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
results of the latest NSSO large survey on employment
and unemployment provide crucial evidence on the pattern
of inadequate job creation in this phase of high economic
growth. |
|
| India's
Schizophrenic Banks |
| Jun
29th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
release of the third of the Financial Stability Reports
being prepared by the RBI provides new information on
the state and behaviour of the Indian banking system.
While banks appear well capitalised and their balance
sheets robust, at the margin they seem to be embracing
too much risk. |
|
| Public
Spending on Education in India |
| Jun
29th 2011,
Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
failure of the government to provide universal access
to quality schooling and to ensure equal access to higher
education among all socio-economic groups as well as
across gender and region has significant implications
for equitable socio-economic advancement. Ensuring a
reasonable quality of education to all children will
necessarily require a significant expansion of the public
resources to be provided. |
|
| Food
Price Transmission in South Asia |
| Jun
14th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
recent increase in global food prices has once again
set off alarm signals in developing countries, especially
in South Asia, where food inflation has been a major
problem for some years now. Evidence from South Asian
countries corroborates the fact that domestic factors
do play a role in the international transmission; while
rising global prices put upward pressure on domestic
prices in a much rapid manner, its downward movements
are less rapidly or effectively transmitted and often
do not have any such impact. |
|
| International
Banks in Emerging Markets |
| Jun
2nd 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
presence and growth of foreign banks in emerging markets
pose important challenges, both for these countries
and the international financial system. Yet the debate
on banking re-regulation before and after the crisis
focuses largely on the experience of the developed countries,
ignoring the implications of developments in the emerging
economies. |
|
| The
Left and Elections in West Bengal
|
| May
18th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Assembly
elections in West Bengal have resulted in defeat of
the Left Front government after 34 years in power. However,
a detailed look at the voting shares shows that the
Left parties still managed to garner more than 41 per
cent of the votes which by no means can be taken as
showing a big decline in popular support for the Left
among the people in the state. |
|
| Revisiting
Capital Flows |
| May
4th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
In
a recent move the IMF surprised many by revising its
position on the use of capital controls and making a
case for them in special circumstances. It has followed
this up with an analysis of capital flows to developing
countries, which also explains its partial rethink on
the use of capital controls by developing countries. |
|
| Health
Outcomes across the Major Indian States
|
| Apr
20th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
An
examination of the most recent health outcome indicators
across the major Indian states throws up some surprising
results. In this article, the authors consider the evidence
on infant mortality and maternal mortality rates and
show how the various states are ranked quite differently
as compared to when GDP growth rate is taken as the
primary indicator of progress. |
|
| Whither
Industrial Growth? |
| Apr
8th 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
The
recent deceleration in month-on-month IIP growth rates
has given the government cause for concern. One possible
argument that explains the medium term industrial growth
trends is that the process of unwinding of the fiscal
stimulus was not accompanied by any neutralising surge
in debt-financed private investment and consumption.
However, it is too early to conclude with confidence
that this is what is happening. |
|
| The
Transmission of Global Food Prices |
| Mar
22nd 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Global
food prices are spiking once again, creating fears of
a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis.
Given that recent domestic food price changes in different
Asian countries point to a broader trend whereby they
have been strongly related to international price changes,
this is a matter of extreme concern. |
|
| The
Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement |
| Feb
22nd 2011, C.P.
Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
There
has been much media celebration about the recent signing
of the Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Agreement. This article examines some of the features
of the agreement and considers their implications for
domestic economic strategies and processes in India.
|
|
| Food
Prices and Distribution Margins in India |
| Feb
3rd 2011, Jayati
Ghosh |
|
|
To
look at corporate retail as the solution to the current
food price increase seems to be foolish as the recent
evidence on distribution margins indicates that the
countrywide share of corporate retail in food distribution
is estimated to have tripled in the past four years
and the retail food prices have shown the greatest increase.
Instead, creating a viable and effective public distribution
system in essential commodities is an immediate requirement. |
|
| Public
Works and Wages in Rural India |
| Jan
11th 2011, C.
P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh |
|
|
Data
from the 64th Round of the National Sample Survey, which
was specifically concerned with migration and employment
conditions, allow for an examination of trends in real
wages and the impact of the MNREGS on wages and unemployment.
In this article, the authors consider the evidence of
these effects on the work conditions of rural casual
labour, especially women workers. |
|
| (Un)Common
Suffering: Distributional impact of recent inflation in
India |
| Jan
6th 2011, Rajarshi
Majumder and Subhadip Ghosh |
|
|
Recent
inflation in India is special both because of its peaks
and its persistence. It is argued that unlike during
2008-09, recent inflation is due to structural problems.
Further, a distributional analysis reveals that its
impact is not shared equally. People in the lower income
groups have been facing uncommon difficulties, as their
purchasing power seems to have been halved over the
last four years. |
|
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